Critical analysis of simulated daily temperature data from the ARPEGE-climate model: application to climate change in the Champagne wine-producing region

摘要

As global warming is scientifically and widely accepted, its impacts at regional scales are raising many questions for wine producers. In particular, climate parameters, especially temperature, play a decisive role in vine growth and grape ripening. An overview of expected climate change in terms of bioclimatic indexes (Winkler and Huglin) and thermal extremes in the wine-producing region of Champagne is presented. A variable-grid atmospheric general circulation model, ARPEGE-Climate, with a local zoom at 50 km over the area of interest, is used to investigate potential future changes in thermal extremes and bioclimatic indexes. Changes in daily maximum and minimum temperatures at key stages are discussed for three emission scenarios (B1, A1B, A2) that are currently used in studies of impacts of climate change. Model outputs are analyzed and critically assessed for a control period (1971-2000) and for changes in extreme events in relation to future scenarios, such as a decrease in extreme low temperatures in spring (April) during bud break and an increase in extreme high temperatures in summer, associated with more frequent heat waves during ripening.