Sensitivity of runoff, soil moisture and reservoir design to climate change in central Indian river basins

摘要

The regional effects of climate change on various components of the hydrological cycle viz, surface runoff, soil moisture, and evapotranspiration were examined for three drainage basins of central India. Hypothetical scenarios of precipitation and temperature changes were used as input in a conceptual rainfall-runoff model. The influences of climate change on flood, drought, and agriculture are highlighted. The response of hypothetical reservoirs in these drainage basins to climate variations werealso studied. Results indicate that the basin located in a comparatively drier region is more sensitive to climatic changes. The high probability of a significant effect of climate change on reservoir storage, especially for drier scenarios, necessitatesthe need of a further, more critical analysis of these effects.