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How History Happens, or Why the Conventional Wisdom is Always Wrong

机译:历史如何发生,或传统智慧为何总是错误的

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摘要

·You Could predict which incumbent presidents would win or lose re-election? ·You could predict which genres of pop stars would next rule the airwaves and movie screens? ·You could predict the pus and downs of the economy? ·You could identify the peaks in popularity for major sports, like baseball and basketball? ·You could predict the next big thing in fashion? · You could predict when a county would be peaceful and when it would be beset with labor strikes, protest demonstrations, and war?·How much would this ability be worth to companies, governments, ultural leaders, and every person affected by such events?
机译:·您能预测哪些现任总统会赢得或失去连任? ·您可以预测哪些流行歌手接下来会统治电波和电影屏幕? ·您可以预测经济的跌宕起伏吗? ·您能确定棒球和篮球等主要运动的人气高峰吗? ·您可以预测时尚的下一件大事吗? ·您可以预测一个县何时会和平,何时会受到罢工,抗议示威和战争的困扰?·这种能力对公司,政府,文化领袖以及受此类事件影响的每个人有多少价值?

著录项

  • 来源
    《Complexity》 |2003年第6期|共5页
  • 作者

    John L. Casti;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 高等数学;
  • 关键词

  • 入库时间 2022-08-18 09:38:35

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