Road context evaluated by means of fuzzy interval

摘要

In this article, an application of the Hollnagel's CREAM model, known for its determination of human reliability within complex systems, is proposed and opportunely adapted to road safety and enhanced with a control mechanism of uncertain variables based on the fuzzy interval. The aim of the research is to use an analytical technique that could allow the management in a temporarily and economically convenient way of a great number of variables without losing the information on the uncertainty of the final result. In order to do this, the author has handled the outputs of the fuzzy model with techniques of interval analysis, thus preserving the uncertain content in the following stages of the analysis. The results obtained, expressed with a simple application, permit the determination of the influence that the environmental context exercises towards driver behaviour. Such a model, once in place, allows the rapid examination of further scenarios and in this way is able to constitute an important instrument in the preliminary stages of comparison between other design solutions. Therefore, the methodology is useful not only to quantify the reliability of the route covered by the driver but also to address the strategies of the maintenance towards the improvement of those components of the environmental context that can be critical with regard to road safety.