Estimation of Japanese domestic pork cut meats as deliverable commodities on Japanese pork futures markets based on analysis of distribution, price volatilities and sales on wholesales markets

摘要

In Japan, the domestic fresh broiler leg meat futures contracts on Kanmon Commodity Exchange and the domestic M size shell egg futures contracts have been traded on Chubu Commodity Exchange since 1999, but no futures contracts on pork had been traded. If pork were traded on futures market in Japan, pork futures market could be alternatives as pricing market with Japanese central and local wholesales markets. The annual nationwide sales by wholesale prices on the Japanese domestic pork dressed carcass has decreased from 826.19 billion yen to 530.71 billion yen per year and the average annual volume at all central wholesales market in Japan was only 6.1-7.7 percent of the total domestic production (1989-1998). Average coefficient of variation per year and annual sales by wholesale price per year on Japanese domestic pork dressed carcass and cut meats during the period of 1995-1999 were 1.57 percent/year and 155.4 billion yuan/year (A grade dressed carcass at Tokyo Central Market), 11.81 percent/year and 295.5 billion yuan/year (Side set of Cut meat), 10.39 percent/year and 49.8 billion yuan/year (Fore shank of Cut meat), 9.58 percent/year and 35.5 billion yuan (Boston butt of Cut meat), 11.12 percent/year and 87.9 billion yuan (Loin of Cut meat),11.99 percent/year and 13.6 billion yuan/year (Fillet of Cut meat), 6.43 percent/year and 53.2 billion yuan/year (Belly of Cut meat). 10.70 percent/year and 73.3 billion yuan/year (Ham of Cut meat). Average annual sales on Japanese domestic pork cut meatand distribution which included domestic and imported cut meat during the period of 1995-1999 was 608.8 billion yuan and 967.4 billion yuan. With the multiple regression analysis, the estimated volumes of trading per day would be 10,227 contracts on A grade dressed carcass at Tokyo Central Market, 52,027 contracts on Side set of Cut meat, 9,876 contracts on Fore shank of Cut meat, 6,490 contracts on Boston butt of Cut meat, 17,060 contracts on Loin of Cut meat, 5,973 contracts on Fillet of Cut meat, 5,407 contracts on Belly of Cut meat, 14,129 contracts on Ham of Cut meat. Considering Japanese domestic distribution, I propose that side set, loin or combination of Japanese domestic pork cut meats would be suitable as deliverable commodities on the porkfutures market.