Cycles, Syllogisms and Semantics: Examining the Idea of Spurious Cycles

摘要

The claim that linear filters are liable to induce spurious fluctuations has been repeated many times of late. However, there are good reasons for asserting that this cannot be the case for the filters that, nowadays, are commonly employed by econometricians. If these filters cannot have the effects that have been attributed to them, then one must ask what effects the filters do have that could have led to the aspersions that have been made against them.