How does your company approach decisions and rate innovation risk?

摘要

Rules of thumb, intuition, tradition, and simple financial analysis are often no longer sufficient for addressing such common decisions as make-versus-buy, facility site selection, and process redesign. In general, the forces of competition are imposing a need for more effective decision making at all levels in organizations. Uncertainty is the fact of life and business; probability is the guide for a "good" life and successful business. The concept of probability occupies an important place in the decision-making process, whether the problem is one faced in business, in government, in the social sciences or just in one's own everyday personal life. In very few decision making situations is perfect information available. Most decisions are made in the face of uncertainty. Chance enters into the process by playing the role of a substitute for certainty - a substitute for complete knowledge.