Simulating the diffusion of technological innovation with an integrated hybrid agent-based system dynamics model

摘要

The potential of hybrid models to enhance simulations of the real world is explored. While the scope for design of such models is large, the focus here brings together agent-based (AB) and system dynamics (SD) modelling within a defined architectural framework. Comprising a number of modules, each of which is implemented in a single modelling paradigm, the design of hybrid models looks to exploit the potential from a range of approaches and tools. Coded within a single programming environment, the international diffusion of technological innovation is used as a case study to highlight hybrid simulation model design and implementation. An integrated hybrid simulation design that incorporates feedback between modules in a continuous, fluid, process is employed to develop a model comprising two SD modules and one AB module. The predictions from the hybrid model are compared to known outcomes regarding the national adoption of mobile telephony, fixed internet and fixed broadband. We conclude with some thoughts on the design of hybrid simulation models.