Assessment of Flooding Risk to Cultural Heritage in Historic Sites

摘要

Fluvial flooding in August 2002 affected a number of structures in the Czech Republic. Considerable damage was observed particularly in the historic city of Prague. Extensive investigations indicated that main observed causes of damage could be classified into geotechnical aspects, inadequate structural properties, and insufficient communication. After the flooding responsible authorities have considered permanent and temporary protective measures to reduce adverse consequences of flooding in the future. Decisions concerning expensive measures should be preferably based on risk optimization, taking into account potential societal and economic consequences and losses of cultural heritage values. General framework of the risk assessment is thus proposed considering specific issues of cultural heritage. Such an assessment needs a theoretical model suitable for predicting flows and extents of future floods. For that reason, the authors statistically analyzed hydrologic data for annual maximum flows of the Vltava River in Prague dating back to 1827. Pearson III and lognormal distributions seem to be suitable models for a considered sample. Estimations of extreme flows, needed for assessment of flooding risk to endangered sites and decisions on protective measures, are provided for different return periods.