Incorporating Reliability Methods into Geotechnical Engineering Practice

摘要

There are a number of circumstances in life that use probability to describe possible outcomes of a situation. For example, rain is predicted in the framework of probability (i.e., a 25-50 percent chance), odds of a sports team winning may be 3 to 1, and chances for survival of a major surgical procedure or treatment may be 50/50. Civil engineering projects, and especially the geotechnical aspects of those projects, are also fraught with uncertainty in a number of ways. There is uncertainty associated with the site geology, soil parameters, construction tolerances, and even in the design itself. "Engineers can deal with uncertainty by ignoring it, by being conservative, by using the observational method, or by quantifying it" (Christian 2004). The question, however, is: How can these points of uncertainty be examined and incorporated into engineering practice in a meaningful and quantitative way? An equally important question is: If this is indeed possible, how can a project remain within the design budget; especially for the relatively small assignments?