Building Integrated Photovoltaic (BIPV)systems in Romania. Monitoring, modelling and experimental validation

摘要

The study is dedicated to the performance analysis of a BIPV (Building Integrated Photovoltaic) system developed in Romania and mounted on the building of the Polytechnic University of Bucharest (PUB); such systems highly depend on the fluctuation of incoming solar radiation reaching the PV system's surface. The estimation of the energy production of the BIPV system, on a short term period (two days), is considered as the main objective of the article. In the first part of the article, the BIPV demonstrative system is presented, as well as the meteorological station used. In the second part of the study, short-term solar irradiation forecasts are elaborated in two ways, based on the meteorological experimental datasets. First, forecasting tests are run using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. Second, artificial neural network (ANN) techniques are also evaluated (based on meteorological variables) in order to enhance the forecasts of solar irradiation. Finally, we conclude by validating the obtained results by real measurements determining the error range of forecasted values quantifying by the root-mean-square error (RMSE), as well as an estimation of energy production between forecasted and measured values.