Rock Failure Forecasting with 3D Modeling Using Probabilistic Cellular Automata

摘要

The authors construct 3D probabilistic cellular automata to model accumulation of elementary damages and evolution of their cluster structure. Kinetic dependences of number of the clusters and evolution of time correlation functions are studied for the number of clusters and number of elementary damages. It is proved that intersection of the time autocorrelation function of a random process "number of impulses of emission" with the local minimum in the field of negative correlation can be interpreted as a sign of transition of a loaded material to a stage immediately preceding irreversible failure.