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The general mixing of addicts and needles in a variable-infectivity needle-sharing environment

机译:可变感染性共用针头环境中吸毒者和针头的一般混合

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In this paper we develop and analyse a model for the spread of HIV/AIDS amongst a population of injecting drug users. The model we discuss focuses on the transmission of HIV through the sharing of contaminated drug injection equipment and in particular we examine the mixing of addicts and needles when the AIDS incubation period is divided into three distinct infectious stages. The impact of this assumption is to greatly increase the complexity of the HIV transmission mechanism. We begin the paper with a brief literature review followed by the derivation of a model which incorporates three classes of infectious addicts and three classes of infectious needles and where a general probability structure is used to represent the interaction of addicts and needles of varying levels of infectivity. We find that if the basic reproductive number is less than or equal to unity then there exists a globally stable disease free equilibrium. The model possesses an endemic equilibrium solution if the basic reproductive number exceeds unity. We then conduct a brief simulation study of our model. We find that the spread of disease is heavily influenced by the way addicts and needles of different levels of infectivity interact. [References: 21]
机译:在本文中,我们开发和分析了在注射吸毒人群中艾滋病毒/艾滋病传播的模型。我们讨论的模型着重于通过共享受污染的药物注射设备传播艾滋病毒的方法,尤其是当艾滋病毒的潜伏期分为三个不同的感染阶段时,我们研究了成瘾者和针头的混合情况。这种假设的影响是大大增加了艾滋病毒传播机制的复杂性。我们以简要的文献综述开始本文,然后推导一个模型,该模型包含三类传染性成瘾者和三类传染性针,并且其中一般概率结构用于表示成瘾者与不同感染水平的针的相互作用。我们发现,如果基本生殖数小于或等于1,则说明存在全球稳定的无病平衡。如果基本生殖数超过1,则该模型具有地方均衡解。然后,我们对模型进行简短的模拟研究。我们发现,疾病的传播受到上瘾者和不同感染水平的针头相互作用的方式的严重影响。 [参考:21]

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