War, drought, and phenology: changes in the land surface phenologyof Afghanistan since 1982

摘要

War and resulting institutional changes can be important drivers of land use and land coverchange. We explore how war, its consequences, and drought have affected the land surfacephenology (LSP) of Afghanistan. Afghanistan offers a unique case of a semi-arid country withmultiple institutional changes during the past two decades. Long image time series are able to characterize the seasonal development of Afghanistan'svegetated land surface. We apply a statistical framework to four governance periods andcompare the average AVHRR NDVI 8 km data across periods, and calculate trends withinstudy periods. We focus on significant changes in LSP in the region around Qandahar. Finally,we assess changes in LSP between 2001 (a drought year) and 2003 (a year with sufficientprecipitation) using MODIS NDVI lkm data. Results reveal the strengths and limitations of LSPmodeling in an environment characterized by high interannualand spatial variability as well asby socio-economic turbulence.