Combining stochastic modeling techniques with scenario thinking for strategic and policy decisions in agriculture.

摘要

In order to make decisions in either normal (risk) or abnormal (uncertainty) conditions, decision makers have to make use of tools to assist in attempting to make a good decision. The simultaneous application of two methods, scenario thinking and stochastic modeling, facilitates a more complete understanding of the risks and uncertainties pertaining to policy and strategic business decisions in agricultural commodity markets. This is likely to facilitate better decision making in an increasingly turbulent and uncertain environment. Results of such an analysis are generated within the BFAP analytical systems, which incorporates a direct link to the global FAPRI modeling system.