Quantitative Flood Forecasting on Small- and Medium-Sized Basins: A Probabilistic Approach for Operational Purposes

摘要

The forecast of rainfall-driven floods is one of the main themes of analysis in hydrometeorology and a critical issue for civil protection systems. This work describes a complete hydrometeorological forecast system for small- and medium-sized basins and has been designed for operational applications. In this case, because of the size of the target catchments and to properly account for uncertainty sources in the prediction chain, the authors apply a probabilistic framework. This approach allows for delivering a prediction of streamflow that is valuable for decision makers and that uses as input quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) issued by a regional center that is in charge of hydrometeorological predictions in the Liguria region of Italy. This kind of forecast is derived from different meteorological models and from the experience of meteorologists. Single-catchment and multicatchment approaches have been operationally implemented and studied. The hydrometeorological forecasting chain has been applied to a series of case studies with encouraging results. The implemented system makes effective use of the quantitative information content of rainfall forecasts issued by expert meteorologists for flood-alert purposes.