Operational quantitative precipitation forecasting at the German Weather Service

摘要

The operational system of numerical weather prediction models of the German Weather Service is described. The main emphasis is on the high-resolution (ca. 14 km in the horizontal) limited area model. More than seven years of verification of quantitative precipitation forecasts are available. The methods of verification and the results are presented, showing advantages and shortcomings of the system. Both the former operational system and the new system, which became operational on 1 December 1999. are used for case studies of extreme events. These case studies show the capability of the forecast system to cover reasonably well both large-scale long-term and small-scale short-term high precipitation events. The model output of quantitative precipitation distribution is used to support the operational flood prediction in some of the federal states of Germany. Statistical interpretation methods are used to increase the reliability of the precipitation forecasts. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. [References: 41]