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Response of the San Jacinto Fault Zone to static stress changes from the 1992 Landers earthquake

机译:San Jacinto断层带对1992年Landers地震引起的静应力变化的响应

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We perform an analysis of the seismicity response of the San Jacinto Fault Zone to static Coulomb stress changes from the 1992 Landers earthquake sequence. Results show that, in general, stress changes forecast rate changes well: we find a significant positive correlation between the change in rate and the magnitude of the Coulomb stress change, with a correlation coefficient of = 0.76 (equivalent to 5.6 sigma, when compared to a = 0 null hypothesis). Furthermore, although the correlations are less clear over negative than positive stress changes, there is evidence of some Coulomb stress dependent quiescence on stress shadows. Models that account for heterogeneity in reference seismicity show clear improvements in their predictions of spatial variability of aftershock rates, compared to those that assume uniform reference. We find also that better performance is obtained (1) using a time-dependent Coulomb Rate-State model compared to a time-independent exponential model and (2) using structurally constrained rather than optimal target fault orientations. These results are an important step in the validation of Coulomb stress based methods for quantitative seismicity forecasting. We conclude that the correspondence between the predictions of Coulomb stress models for aftershock seismicity may be sensitive to strong heterogeneity in aftershock locations and orientations associated with the presence of large-scale structure in aftershock study areas. In these cases, we suggest that, where the regional structure is mapped, incorporating it explicitly into Coulomb stress models may improve the performance of quantitative Coulomb stress-based forecasts.
机译:我们对San Jacinto断层带对1992年Landers地震序列中静态库仑应力变化的地震响应进行了分析。结果表明,总体而言,应力变化预测速率变化良好:我们发现速率变化与库仑应力变化幅度之间存在显着的正相关关系,相关系数= 0.76(相当于5.6σ,与a = 0零假设)。此外,尽管负应力的相关性不及正应力变化的相关性明显,但有证据表明应力阴影上存在一些库仑应力相关的静态。与假定统一参考的模型相比,考虑参考地震学非均质性的模型在余震速率空间变异性的预测中显示出明显的改进。我们还发现,与时间无关的指数模型相比,使用时间相关的库仑速率-状态模型可以获得更好的性能(1),并且(2)使用结构约束而不是最佳的目标断层方向。这些结果是验证基于库仑应力的定量地震活动性预测方法的重要步骤。我们得出结论,关于余震地震活动性的库仑应力模型预测之间的对应关系可能对余震研究区域中存在大规模结构相关的余震位置和方向的强烈异质性敏感。在这些情况下,我们建议在绘制区域结构的情况下,将其显式纳入库仑应力模型中可能会改善基于库仑应力的定量预测的性能。

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