Hazard assessment of explosive volcanism at Somma-Vesuvius

摘要

A probabilistic approach based on the available volcanological data on past Somma-Vesuvius eruptions has been developed to produce hazard-zone maps for fallout, pyroclastic density currents (PDCs), and secondary mass flows by using numerical simulations. The hazard maps have been incorporated in a GIS, making them accessible to casual and expert users for risk mitigation and education management. The results allowed - us to explore the hazard related to different scenarios from all possible eruptions, ranked according to volcanic explosivity index (VEI) class, in the Vesuvius area and its surroundings including Naples. Particularly, eruptions with VEI < 3 would produce a fallout hazard within about 10 km mostly east of the volcano and a PDC hazard within about 2 km from the crater. Large-scale events (4 < VEI < 5) would produce a fallout hazard up to 80 km from the vent and a PDC hazard at distances exceeding 15 km. Particularly, the territory northwest of Vesuvius, including metropolitan Naples, featuring a low hazard level for fallout accumulation, is exposed to PDCs also consistent with field evidence and archeological findings. Both volcano flanks and surrounding plains, hills, and mountains are exposed to a moderate–high level of hazard for the passage of secondary mass flows. With the present level of uncertainty in forecasting future eruption type and size on the basis of statistical analysis as well as precursory activity, our results indicate that the reference scenario in the emergency plan should carefully match the worst-case VEI 5 probabilistic scenario.