Tree ring evidence of a 20th century precipitation surge in the monsoon shadow zone of the western Himalaya, India

摘要

The present study is the first attempt to develop an annual (August-July) precipitation series back to AD 1330 using a tree ring data network of Himalayan cedar (Cedrus deodara (Roxb.) G. Don) from the Lahaul-Spiti region in the western Himalaya, India. The rainfall reconstruction reveals high magnitude multidecadal droughts during the 14th and 15th centuries and thenceforth a gradual increase in precipitation. Increasingly wet conditions during the 20th century are consistent with other long-term precipitation reconstructions from high Asia and reflect a large-scale intensification of the hydrological cycle, coincident with what is anticipated due to global warming. Significant relationships between reconstructed precipitation and precipitation records from central southwest Asia, east of the Caspian Sea, ENSO (NINO4-SST) variability and summer monsoon rainfall over central northeast India underscore the utility of our data in synoptic climatology.