Simulations using a drugdisease modeling framework and phase ii data predict phase iii survival outcome in first-line nonsmall-cell lung cancer

摘要

Simulations were performed for carboplatin/paclitaxel (C/P) plus motesanib or bevacizumab vs. C/P as first-line treatment for advanced nonsmall-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) using a published drugdisease model. With 700 patients in each arm, simulated hazard ratios for motesanib (0.87; 95% confidence interval CI, 0.711.1) and bevacizumab (0.89; 95% CI, 0.731.1) agreed with results from the respective phase III studies but did not discriminate between failed and successful studies. The current model may require further enhancement to improve its utility for predicting phase III outcomes.