Modeling the relationship between the beef producer price and the oil prices in Turkey.

摘要

In this study, the possible effects of crude oil prices, beef feed prices and competitive product price on the beef producer price were examined by the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL). Monthly time series data which covers the period of January 2003-July 2012 was used in the study. The data on the price of beef producers for the modelling stage, Perron structural break test analysis was performed. The year of refraction of the beef price was found in November 2009. As a result of the limit test analysis that based on the correlation of long-term equilibrium, between the producer price of beef and the other variables were found to be present of co-integration. Of the variables the prices of beef feed with crude oil price both short- and long-term effects were positive and significant.