Chain indices of the cost-of-living and the path-dependence problem: An empirical solution

摘要

This paper proposes a new method for estimating true cost-of-living (Koniis) indices, for large numbers of commodities, using data only on prices, aggregate budget shares and aggregate expenditure. Conventional chain indices are path-dependent unlessincome elasticities are (implausibly) all equal to 1. The method allows this difficulty to be overcome. I show that to estimate a Koniis index, only income and not price elasticities are required. The method is applied to estimate a Koniis price index for 70 products covering nearly all the UK's Retail Prices Index over 1974-2004, using the Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System. The choice of base year for utility has a significant effect on the index.