Philosophy and objectives of econometrics

摘要

In this paper, the philosophy and objectives of econometrics are discussed. The roles of induction, deduction and reduction in economic research are explained. Further, the roles of sophisticated simplicity and predictive performance in model buildingare described. Many examples, drawn from the work of leading scientists, are provided to illustrate general points. In addition, the work that has been done leading to the formulation of a disaggregate Marshallian Macroeconomic Model is briefly described. It is concluded that greater emphasis in teaching to explain the roles of deduction, induction and reduction in economic research would be very beneficial in terms of producing more valuable and useful research results. Also, development and use of many more sophisticatedly simple models and further use of Bayesian inference and decision techniques will do much to promote more rapid progress in economic science.