ASSESSING THE EFFECTS OF TEMPERATURE AND DENGUE VIRUS LOAD ON DENGUE TRANSMISSION

摘要

In this study, we propose a model to assess the effect of temperature on the incidence of dengue fever. For this, we take into account the dependence of the entomological and epidemiological parameters of the transmitter vector Aedes aegypti with respect to the temperature. The model consists of an ODE system that describes the transmission between humans and mosquitoes considering the aquatic stage of the vector population. The qualitative analysis of the model is made in terms of the parameters R-M and R-0, which represent the basic offspring of mosquitoes, and the basic reproductive number of the disease, respectively. If R-M < 1 mosquito population extinguishes while for R-M > 1 it tends asymptotically to a nonzero equilibrium. Analogously, the disease transmission is eliminated if R0 < 1, and it approaches an endemic equilibrium for R-0 > 1. Using entomological data of mosquitoes as well as experimental data of disease transmission we evaluate R-M and R-0 at different temperatures, obtaining that around 30 degrees C both parameters attain their maximum. Sensitivity analysis reveals that infection rates and mosquito mortality are the parameters for which R-0 is more sensitive.