The ethanolization of agriculture and the roles of agricultural economists.

摘要

This article describes how the maize-based ethanol policies in the USA have created an unlevel playing field that transfers money from urban voters to maize farmers and ethanol industry investors in the guise of energy independence. It also discusses how this ethanolization threat is likely to linger. It is argued that the ethanolization of the U.S. agricultural sector represents a fundamental shift in the structure and behaviour of farms, agribusinesses and policymakers at the local, state and federal levels for the following reasons: (1) the continuation of political support for renewable energy policies which have existed in various forms for 30 years; (2) the momentum and positive image enjoyed by the maize-based ethanol industry adds to continued political support of ethanolization; and (3) the absence of major technological advances replacing grain as the basis for ethanol. While the 1970's to the mid-1990's witnessed the rise and fall of grain prices in the U.S. due to shifting supply and demand for grain, the demand for grain seems to be assured from the 90's onwards. The tax and tariff policies supporting the ethanol industry due to rising crude oil prices emerged in the 90's. The current escalation in grain prices for maize, soyabean and wheat, are expected to linger due to ethanolization. Ethanol's percentage of total maize use is expected to increase 2.5 fold from 2004-05 to 2008-09. The establishment of an additional 67 maize-based plants on top of the 142 existing ethanol plants, offers evidence that ethanolization is not temporary and will likely and easily sustain itself over the next 5 to 10 years. Ethanolization has made an impact on the following sectors: rise in input prices for crop and livestock production, particularly that of fuel, fertilizer and feed; air and water quality or supply is either improving or deteriorating; rural support businesses are vulnerable to acreage shifts to ethanol thus rural communities are likewise vulnerable when these businesses disappear and may not return; and international trade and policy have been impacted by ethanolization. It is suggested that agricultural economists, being the only discipline to possess the tools, insights and understanding to effectively evaluate the issues, should be actively engaged in the issues and exercise flexibility as the environment, challenges and problems evolve.