An Evaluation of the USDA Sugar Production and Consumption Forecasts

摘要

The performance of the USDA domestic sugar production and consumption forecasts for marketing years 1993/1994 through 2009/2011 was evaluated. Using USDA sugar forecast information, U.S. sugar policy attempts to operate at no cost to the government bymaintaining sugar prices above the government loan-rate. Results suggest no evidence that U.S. sugar policy is negatively impacted by the USDA sugar forecasts. New policies formed under the 2008 Farm Bill are not impaired by USDA sugar production and consumption forecasts. Overall, the results suggest that the USDA has done a respectable job of forecasting sugar production and consumption over the sample period.