Airline Capacity Discipline Keeps Lid on US Jet Demand

摘要

US airlines are emerging from a profitable year for the first time since 2007, but jet fuel demand remains sluggish. One of the key lessons learned from the recession - a disciplined approach to managing capacity - has served carriers well as a means to bolster revenue. That restraint is also keeping jet usage relatively depressed versus the trend line that prevailed prior to the recession (JFI Oct.25,p1). Nationwide jet fuel demand averaged 1.429 million barrels per day last year, a gain of 2.4% from 2009 levels, according to Energy Information Administration data. That corresponds to a 2% rise in US air traffic volumes last year. Consumption fell off a cliff in late 2008, when the collapse of Lehman Brothers pushed the economy deeper into recession, and has since followed a much lower growth track. An analysis of demand data going back to 1993 by CIBC World Markets shows how the terror attacks of Sep. 11,2001 initially knocked jet fuel usage off its growth path, before the recession took a more severe toll. As 2011 got underway, US jet needs had fallen back to rates last seen in 1994, suggesting the recession and its aftermath wiped out 17 years of growth. "The structural adjustments made by airlines have pushed jet demand onto a lower growth track. The question now becomes whether or not consumption will stay below historical trendlines," says Katherine Spector, head of CIBC commodities research (JFI Aug.23,p1).