Africa's Rising Demand for Wheat: Trends, Drivers, and Policy Implications

摘要

This article analyses trends in wheat consumption and imports in sub-Saharan Africa since 1980, and estimates the economic and demographic determinants of this rising demand for wheat. Results point to rising incomes, growing populations, and increasing women's labour-force participation as key drivers. Urban wheat-expenditure shares generally exceed rural ones and SSA's demand is met largely by imports and partly through domestic production on large-scale farms. Rising demand may therefore entail few farm-non-farm synergies and minimal prospects to spur broad-based economic development. The article concludes by discussing policy options for African countries to meet their staple food needs while also promoting pro-poor agricultural growth.