Latest Trends in Supply and Demand

摘要

With last week's Supply/Demand updates from USDA we were able to update our "Data Dashboard" gauges. These gauges summarize all you really need to know about a 40-page monthly volume of statistical data on supply and demand for all major crops in every major producing, exporting or importing country in the world. Just as you can instantly tell how well your tractor, combine or pickup is running by checking the various gauges on your dashboard, you can tell how the price outlook is shaping up by looking at the trend in the five "gauges" we've created for monitoring supply and demand trends for world feedgrains, wheat and oilseeds. If the latest readings show a decline (no matter which gauge you're looking at), it means that particular aspect of supply and demand is moving towards smaller surplus and better price prospects down the road. And the more of the five gauges headed lower, the better the case for better prices ahead; the more that are headed higher, the weaker the case for better prices. Not all the gauges have "equal" impact on trade sentiment, however. So we've also ranked the gauges in order of importance to traders. That means Gauge no. 1 (projected U.S. carryover expressed in "days' supply") carries the most market impact. Gauge no. 5 (importing country production-to-use ratio) is usually the least influential.