An econometric approach for prediction of optimal egg production period by coefficient of economic efficiency and multiphasic analysis

摘要

The present paper uses econometric methods and presently available multiphasic analysis technique and coefficient of economic efficiency to economically characterize optimal egg production period under the economic conditions of Turkey. The state-of-the-art econometric modeling and classic methods used currently for regulatory decision-making in the world are described. Based on this evaluation, needs for future research are defined. It is concluded from our work that mathematical modeling of the economically optimal production time using the coefficient of economic efficiency would improve economic profitability. The classical method of economic optimization in animal production is not suitable for all kinds of economic assessments. A range of different approaches is necessary so that the method used is the most appropriate for the data available and for the economic risk characterization issue. In this research, used basic data for evaluation were: total marginal income, total marginal food pluscumulative pullet cost, total marginal net income, marginal food conversion ratio cost plus marginal pullet cost is coefficient of economic efficiency. After the mathematical function between production period, and coefficient of economic efficiency wascalculated, the optimum production period was predicted by multiphasic analysis technique. Then, optimal egg production period was calculated via derivative function. Total coefficient of economic efficiency was estimated by integration of calculated mathematical function.