Succession Theory: Reassessing a Neglected Meta-narrative about Environment and Development

摘要

During the 1960s ecologists outlined how the human treatment of the natural environment changed as places underwent economic development. The theoretical point of departure for this work, succession theory, then came under theoretical attack in ecology and the work on the human ecology of economic development stopped. Here I examine the theoretical predictions derived from this initial work against the empirical record. A wide range of historical trends, often endogenous in nature, seem consistent with the theory, but important trans-community phenomena like globalization, the spread of invasive species, and climate change do not fit easily into the community oriented focus of succession theory On balance, the historical record confirms enough of the theory's predictions to make a case for the heuristic value of succession theory It may even provide a new metaphor for sustainable development.