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Assessment of impact of climate change on water resources: a long term analysis of the Great Lakes of North America

机译:评估气候变化对水资源的影响:对北美五大湖的长期分析

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In the threshold of the appearance of global warming from theory to reality, extensive research has focused on predicting the impact of potential climate change on water resources using results from Global Circulation Models (GCMs). This research carries this further by statistical analyses of long term meteorological and hydrological data. Seventy years of historical trends in precipitation, temperature, and streamflows in the Great Lakes of North America are developed using long term regression analyses and Mann-Kendall statistics. The results generated by the two statistical procedures are in agreement and demonstrate that many of these variables are experiencing statistically significant increases over a seven-decade period. The trend lines of streamflows in the three rivers of St. Clair, Niagara and St. Lawrence, and precipitation levels over four of the five Great Lakes, show statistically significant increases in flows and precipitation. Further, precipitation rates as predicted using fitted regression lines are compared with scenarios from GCMs and demonstrate similar forecast predictions for Lake Superior. Trend projections from historical data are higher than GCM predictions for Lakes Michigan/Huron. Significant variability in predictions, as developed from alternative GCMs, is noted. Given the general agreement as derived from very different procedures, predictions extrapolated from historical trends and from GCMs, there is evidence that hydrologic changes particularly for the precipitation in the Great Lakes Basin may be demonstrating influences arising from global warming and climate change.
机译:在全球变暖从理论到现实出现的临界点上,广泛的研究集中在使用全球循环模型(GCM)的结果预测潜在的气候变化对水资源的影响。这项研究通过对长期的气象和水文数据进行统计分析,进一步实现了这一目标。利用长期回归分析和Mann-Kendall统计数据,得出了北美大湖地区70年降水,温度和水流的历史趋势。两种统计程序所产生的结果是一致的,并且表明在七个十年中,这些变量中的许多变量都在统计上显着增加。在统计上,圣克莱尔,尼亚加拉和圣劳伦斯三河的水流趋势线和五个大湖中四个湖的降水量在统计上均显示出流量和降水量的显着增加。此外,将使用拟合回归线预测的降水率与来自GCM的情景进行了比较,并证明了对苏必利尔湖的相似预测。历史数据的趋势预测高于密歇根湖/休伦湖的GCM预测。注意到根据其他GCM得出的预测中的显着差异。鉴于从完全不同的程序得出的普遍共识,从历史趋势和GCM推断的预测,有证据表明水文变化,特别是大湖流域的降水,可能表明全球变暖和气候变化产生了影响。

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