Car Licensing Trends of the Babyboomer Cohort (b. 1946-1965) Compared to Earlier Birth Cohorts: Effects on the Driving Population in the State of Victoria, Australia

摘要

Objective: The objective of this article was to explore trends in licensing among babyboomer older drivers in the state of Victoria, Australia. The study aims were to (1) compare the car licensing trends of the babyboomer cohort to that of previous birth cohorts and (2) predict the number of babyboomers licensed to drive a car in 2021 when the babyboomer cohort reaches an average age of 65years.Methods: The residential population of Victoria, Australia, for 2001-2013 was obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics; car licensing statistics were obtained from VicRoads. Birth cohorts from 1916 to 1975 were defined in 10-year birth-year intervals. Population size was modeled using logistic regression. License prevalence was modeled using a logit model.Results: The babyboomer cohort (1946-1965) in Victoria is 1.7times larger than the cohort before them. At age 60years, license prevalence among babyboomers was higher than in previous cohorts: 88% in the 1936-1945 cohort vs. 96% in the 1946-1955 cohort. When the babyboomers reach 65years (average) in 2021, we estimate there to be over twice as many license holders among them than in the preceding cohort (n = 1,300,094vs. 630,830, respectively).Conclusions: Aging of the babyboomer cohort will have a greater impact on the driving population than on the general population, due to the multiplicative effect of cohort size and license prevalence. The impact of road user aging on burden of injury can be minimized by focusing prevention at crashes typical to older drivers, such as intersection crashes, and promoting car safety features among older drivers.