RISK ASSESSMENT OF ARCTIC NAVIGATION BY USING IMPROVED FUZZY-AHP APPROACH

摘要

In this study, navigational risk factors of the Arctic Ocean are defined and numerical weights of each risk are obtained by using Improved Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (IF-AHP) method after conducting expert consultations. The Northern Sea Route shortens the maritime distance approximately 7000 nautical miles comparing to the conventional Suez Canal route. Therefore, it takes a significant role of being economic and time advantage for global logistics. Its geographical position, presence of ice, heavy weather conditions, strong currents and winds are some risks for Arctic transportation. There always have the possibility of unpredictable catastrophes such as a collision, grounding, hull damage and etc. in this region. Reflections of such unwanted incidents might be very costly for economic, political, environmental and safety concerns. Due to there are limited academic studies regarding to analytical and systematical risk identification and determination of risk levels, this study contributes to complete this academic gap.