RISK ASSESSMENT IN TOURISM SYSTEM USING A FUZZY SET AND DOMINANCE-BASED ROUGH SET

摘要

The purpose of this study is to identify risks, discover rule base structure and the impact of risks by knowledge base system design in one of the Iran tourism destination. Based on tourism system approach, the factors of risks are divided in two dimensions: internal risks and external risks and seven criteria: political, economic, cultural-social, technological, environmental-health, functional and safe-security. Data were analyzed by fuzzy inference system and Dominance-based Rough Set Approach (DRSA) synthesizing to construction of forecasting risk assessment system. Tourists' perspectives towards the possibilities of risks were first assessed within seven risk factors and converted into a systematic structure within the structure of rough sets. Designing of a fuzzy expert system was dealt with using the created knowledge database. Then, the system's sensitivity analysis was examined. The results indicate that the system can be a good way to estimate the risks and their fluctuation rates and impacts on the development of tourism destinations. The technological, social, functional and safety-security risks had the highest values in the system designed for minimum travel repeatability. The research suggests that it is important impact of risks and their interaction with each other on the future development of tourism destination.