We have described a new probabilistic method for calculating and assessing lightning striking terrestrial explosive objects using a combined criterion for the emergence of upward streamer and leader discharges from the elements of the object being protected and lightning rods taking into account the probabilistic nature of the avalanche-streamer and streamer-leader transitions, the trajectories of a downward stepped lightning leader and lightning current. It has been shown that the disregard of possible formation of uncompleted streamer discharges from the elements of the object in the electric field of a downward lightning leader, which can ignite explosive emission, decreases the rated probability of the object being damaged by a lightning stroke by several times.
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