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Medium-term forecast of the 1988 north-east India earthquake

机译:1988年印度东北部地震的中期预测

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Northeast India is seismically one of the most active intra-continental regions in the world. It has been a site of 10 earthquakes of magnitude (M) greater than or equal to 7.5 during the last 100 years. Gupta and Singh [J. Geol. Soc. India, 28 (1986) 367-406] systematically analysed the time series of earthquakes associated with several main shocks in an area bound by 20 degreesN and 32 degreesN latitude and 87 degreesE and 100 degreesE longitude and concluded: (1) Moderate magnitude to great earthquakes in the north-east India region are found to be preceded, generally, by well defined earthquake swarms and quiescence periods. (2) On the basis of an earthquake swarm and quiescence period, an area bound by 21 degreesN and 25.5 degreesN latitude and 93 degreesE and 96 degreesE longitude is identified to be the site of a possible future earthquake of M = 8 +/- 0.5 with a focal depth of 100 +/- 40 km. This earthquake should occur any time from now onwards. Should it not occur fill the end of 1990, this forecast could be considered as a false alarm. This medium-term earthquake forecast came true with the occurrence of the M = 7.3 earthquake on August 6, 1988, within the specified spatial and temporal parameters. The forecast of this earthquake was based on the concept of precursory swarms and quiescence preceding main-shocks. It is worthwhile noting that in the entire region under study, the August 6, 1988 earthquake was the largest since the August 17, 1952 earthquake of M = 7.5. This lends support to the worldwide effort to study and identify spatial and temporal variation of seismicity and recognise patterns that precede major earthquakes. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. [References: 31]
机译:印度东北部在地震上是世界上最活跃的洲内地区之一。在过去的100年中,这里曾发生过10次地震,震级均大于或等于7.5。古普塔和辛格[J.地质Soc。印度(28(1986)367-406)系统地分析了在纬度20度和32度,东经87度和100度的区域内与几次主震相关的地震的时间序列,并得出以下结论:(1)中度到强人们发现,印度东北地区的地震通常先于明确的地震群和静止期进行。 (2)根据地震群和静止期,确定以北纬21度和25.5度,东经93度和96度为界的区域是未来可能发生M = 8 +/- 0.5地震的地点焦深为100 +/- 40 km。从现在起任何时候都应该发生地震。如果到1990年底仍未发生,则此预测可被视为虚假警报。 1988年8月6日,在指定的时空参数范围内发生了M = 7.3级地震,这项中期地震预报得以实现。这次地震的预测是基于前兆群和静止前的主震概念。值得注意的是,在整个研究区域中,1988年8月6日地震是自1952年8月17日地震以来最大的M = 7.5。这为全世界研究和识别地震活动的时空变化以及识别大地震之前的模式提供了支持。 (C)2001 Elsevier Science B.V.保留所有权利。 [参考:31]

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