THE ECONOMIC SITUATION IN EUROPE IN SPRING OF THE YEAR 2001

摘要

The traditional spring euphoria cannot, however, appear because the economy tries to reach its balance after the shock it survived at the end of the last year. It became then obvious that the advantageous economic situation which dominated in the USA in the last decade came to an end. The export of the American products has obviously been coming down which proves that the competitiveness of this country has been falling down, too. The excessive investment, especially in the field of computer studies has made some gaps in the economy which to be filled up require some economic rise. On the other hand, a visible drop in private consumption, which has been one of the main pillars of the USA economy, has been noticed. These remarks of the author indicate that the situation in the USA should be taken seriously.However, if the American economy has still some chances to shorten the period of its stagnancy, one cannot say the same about Japan which is the second biggest economic power in the world. As one third of the Japanese export is designed for the USA, the slowing down of the development rate in that country exerts an influence on the situation in Japan. China begins to fill up the gap left by Japan, but it is doubtful if the Chinese will do it. The share of China in the world's economy amounts merely to 3,3 percent, whereas the Japan's share is 15,5 percent.Europe has also her share in the world's economy which amounts to 28,5 percent. It has been foreseen that the European economy will increase in about 3,5 percent in the year 2001, but just now the forecasts of 2,5 percent or 2,6 percent seem to be optimistic. Germany, for example, producing practically one third of the European profit, will increase their economy merely in about 2,1 percent. Similarly, in other European countries the rate of the economic development loses its dynamism. Europe will not derive her strength from the increase in the world's economy, it must be created in Europe herself. The scenario of the development of events in Europe assumes that Europe has some chances for the reduction of taxes has already been introduced in several countries, e.g. in France, Italy and Germany. However, it these forecasts will not be realized, numerous negative factors in the economic development in Europe and in the world can occur in the year 2002.