A framework for reliability prediction during product development process incorporating engineering judgments

摘要

Early in the product development process there is typically little quantitative evidence to predict the reliability of a new concept except possibly indirect or qualitative information. Based on the Bayesian approach, the fuzzy logic theory is used to enhance the capability to deal with qualitative information. The Weibull distribution with a known shape parameter is considered for survival time. The applicability of the framework is illustrated.