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COMBINING SIMULATION ALLOCATION AND OPTIMAL SPLITTING FOR RARE-EVENT SIMULATION OPTIMIZATION

机译:结合模拟分配和最佳分割,进行罕见事件模拟优化

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This paper presents research toward generalizing the optimization of the allocation of simulation replications to an arbitrary number of designs, when the problem is to maximize the Probability of Correct Selection among designs, the best design being the one with the smallest probability of a rare event. The simulation technique within each design is an optimized version of the splitting method. An earlier work solved this problem for the special case of two designs. In this paper an alternative two-stage approach is examined in which, at the first stage, allocations are made to the designs by a modified version of the Optimal Computing Budget Allocation. At the second stage the allocation among the splitting levels within each design is optimized. Our approach is shown to work well on a two-tandem queuing model.
机译:本文提出了将仿真复制分配优化分配给任意数量设计的研究,当问题是使设计之间的正确选择概率最大化时,最佳设计是发生罕见事件的可能性最小的设计。每个设计中的仿真技术都是拆分方法的优化版本。早期的工作针对两种设计的特殊情况解决了此问题。在本文中,研究了一种替代的两阶段方法,其中在第一阶段,通过优化计算预算分配的修改版本对设计进行分配。在第二阶段,优化每个设计中拆分级别之间的分配。我们的方法在两级排队模型上显示出良好的效果。

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