FUTURE OPTIONS FOR FIRE BEHAVIOUR MODELLING ANDFIRE DANGER RATING IN NEW ZEALAND

摘要

Bushfi re research in New Zealand is focussed on developing a national fire danger rating system and fire behaviour prediction models. The approach has been to adapt the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System to the New Zealand fire environment through empirical data collection from experimental fires and wildfires. Research has contributed to improved fire management and increased community and firefighter safety, but there are still significant gaps in the knowledge of fire behaviour in New Zealand fuels. Current research is focussed on developing fire behaviour models for fuel types not included in the Canadian system. Development of shrub fire behaviour models is a priority, given the significant proportion of bushfires in these fuels. However, this has highlighted the need to re-examine some of the fundamental principles guiding the New Zealand approach to fire behaviour modelling and fire danger rating. In New Zealand, fire behaviour prediction and fire danger rating are closely linked, compared to other countries where the two systems are separated. This can create difficulties in distinguishing appropriate spatial and temporal fire danger levels versus site-specific fire behaviour predictions. Other issues include selecting equation parameters and application of empirical systems in fuels different from those where observations were made. This paper reviews these issues and presents alternatives and options for the future.