The Future Composition of the Canadian Labor Force: A Microsimulation Projection

摘要

From 1946 to 1966 Canada witnessed one of the most pronounced baby booms among all industrial countries. The country's total fertility rate peaked at 3.9 children per woman in 1959 (Romaniuk 1984). In the following decades, Canada moved rapidly from arelatively high-fertility country by Western standards to a low-fertility country. By 1971, its total fertility rate had fallen below replacement level and continued to decline to 1.5 around 2000. The TFR then rose slightly, reaching 1.68 around 2010 (Milan 2011). Because of this rapid fall in fertility, the Canadian population is expected to age rapidly as baby boomers start to retire from the labor market in large numbers. In response to declining fertility, Canada raised its immigration intake at the end of the 1980s, and immigration is now the main driver of Canadian population growth. Over the last two decades, the annual immigration rate has averaged 7.5 per thousand population (Citizenship and Immigration Canada 2010). Net migration is currently responsible for approximately two-thirds of Canadian demographic growth, a situation that has prevailed since 2000 (Statistics Canada 2008). Population growth may depend increasingly on migration in the coming decades as natural increase is expected to remain very low and eventually turn negative. With the anticipated absolute and relative rise in numbers of older workers leaving the labor market, pressures to keep immigration rates at fairly high levels will persist.