Urban Rail Transit Present Situation and Future Development Trends in China: Overall Analysis Based on National Policies and Strategic Plans in 2016–2020

摘要

Abstract This study analyzes the development of the urban rail transit industry in China from an overall and macroscopic perspective. Multiple factors were considered, such as the degree of urbanization, non-public vehicle ownership, road capacity, and modal share of public transport in international metropolises, as well as planning and construction of urban rail transit systems in China’s large and extra-large cities. Through extensive investigations and research, this paper presents a comprehensive, systematic, and in-depth analysis and explanation of the domestic social demands and environmental background for the development of urban rail transit in China. Based on national development policies and strategic plans, information on current cutting-edge technologies, the adaptability of various urban rail transit modes, industrial technologies, local finances as well as investment and financing models, this study analyzes the opportunities and challenges that the development of urban rail transit in China faces over the 2016–2020 period aligned with China’s 13th Five-Year Plan. This paper aims to provide a forecast and outlook on the period’s ten major trends. The predicted trends include expanded scale, differentiated development, networked structure, multimodal transit systems, industrial standardization, intelligent systems, self-developed technology, diversified funding, international markets, and strategic planning. This article presents a comprehensive analysis of the current situation, development prospects, and future trends of urban rail transit in China and proposes corresponding measures and strategies. The findings can serve as an important and valuable reference for the development of urban rail transit in China and other countries.