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Effect of Fertility Policy Changes on the Population Structure and Economy of China: From the Perspective of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

机译:生育政策变化对中国人口结构和经济的影响:基于共同的社会经济路径的视角

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Beginning in 2016, all couples in China were allowed to have two children without any restrictions. This paper provides population and economic projections under five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and three fertility policies. By replacing the one‐child policy with the two‐child policy, the population is predicted to continue growing until 2025–2035, with a peak of approximately 1.39–1.42 billion, and then to decline under four SSPs, with the exception of the fragmented world SSP3. As a result, the two‐child policy will lead to mitigation of the pressure from labor shortages and aging problems to a certain extent. In addition, an increase in working‐age people with higher education level relative to projections based on the one‐child policy will lead to an increase in gross domestic product by approximately 38.1–43.9% in the late 21st century. However, labor shortages and aging problems are inevitable, and the proportion of elderly in China will be greater than 14% and 21% by approximately 2025 and 2035, respectively. Full liberalization of fertility is expected to reduce the share of elderly people by 0.7–1.0% and to lead to an increase in gross domestic product by 5.3–6.7% relative to the two‐child policy in the late 21st century. The full liberalization of fertility policies is recommended, supplemented by increases in pension and child‐rearing funds, improvement in the quality of health services for females and children, and extension of compulsory education to meet the needs of an aged society. Plain Language Summary The one‐child policy in China has been replaced by the two‐child policy since 2016. What might the population and economy change if the one‐child policy is continued in the 21st century? What can China benefit from the fertility policy changes? Is it necessary to allow people to choose their family size in China? We conducted multipopulation policies and multisocioeconomic development pathways combined analysis to explore the effects of fertility policy changes on population and economy in China. We found that population size by the late 21st century might be 28% less than that in 2010 at the one‐child policy, and share of elderly (aged 65+) might be 49%. The implementation of the two‐child policy can mitigate the labor shortages and aging problems to a certain extent, and the increased working‐age population with higher education level can lead to a 38.1–43.9% increase in gross domestic product in the late 21st century. A further 0.7–1.0% reduction in elderly share of the total population and 5.3–6.7% increase in gross domestic product is projected in the late 21st century at the “full relaxation” policy. We believe that introduction of effects from fertility policy changes on socioeconomy can deliver useful information to decision makers.
机译:从2016年开始,中国所有夫妇被允许无限制地生两个孩子。本文提供了五种共有的社会经济途径(SSP)和三种生育政策下的人口和经济预测。通过用二胎政策代替一胎化政策,预计该人口将持续增长直至2025-2035年,峰值约为1.39-14.2亿,然后在四个SSP下下降,但零散的人口除外世界SSP3。结果,二胎政策将在一定程度上减轻劳动力短缺和老龄化问题带来的压力。另外,相对于基于独生子女政策的预测,受教育程度较高的劳动年龄人口的增加将导致21世纪末国内生产总值增长约38.1–43.9%。但是,劳动力短缺和老龄化问题是不可避免的,到2025年和2035年,中国老年人的比例将分别超过14%和21%。相对于21世纪末的二胎政策,完全放开生育率预计将使老年人的比例减少0.7–1.0%,并使国内生产总值增长5.3–6.7%。建议完全放开生育政策,辅之以增加养恤金和抚育子女的资金,改善男女儿童保健服务的质量以及扩大义务教育以满足老年社会的需要。简明语言摘要自2016年以来,中国的一胎化政策已被二胎化政策取代。如果在21世纪继续实施一胎化政策,人口和经济可能发生什么变化?中国从生育政策变化中能受益什么?是否有必要让人们选择中国的家庭规模?我们进行了多元人口政策和多元社会经济发展路径的综合分析,以探讨生育政策变化对中国人口和经济的影响。我们发现,到21世纪后期,独生子女政策的人口规模可能比2010年减少28%,而老年人(65岁以上)的比例可能为49%。 “二胎”政策的实施可以在一定程度上缓解劳动力短缺和老龄化的问题,而受教育程度较高的劳动年龄人口的增加可以导致21世纪末的国内生产总值增长38.1–43.9% 。预计到21世纪末,“全面放松”政策将使老年人在总人口中的份额进一步降低0.7-1.0%,使国内生产总值增长5.3-6.7%。我们认为,引入生育政策变化对社会经济的影响可以为决策者提供有用的信息。

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