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Chinese automobile sales forecasting using economic indicators and typical domestic brand automobile sales data: A method based on econometric model:

机译:使用经济指标和典型国内品牌汽车销售数据进行的中国汽车销售预测:基于计量经济学模型的方法:

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Accurate sales forecasting plays an increasingly important role in automobile companies due to fierce market competition. In this article, an econometric model is proposed to analyze the dynamic connections among Chinese automobile sales, typical domestic brand automobile (Chery) sales, and economic variables. Four tests are required before modeling, which include unit root, weak exogeneity, cointegration, and Granger-causality test. The selected economic variables consist of consumer confidence index, steel production, consumer price index, and gasoline price. Monthly is used to empirical analysis and the result shows that there is long-term cointegration relationship between Chinese automobile sales and the endogenous variables. A vector error correction model in econometric based on cointegration is applied to quantify long-term impact of endogenous variables on Chinese automobile sales. Compared with other classical time-series methods, root mean square error (0.1243) and mean absolute percentage erro...
机译:由于激烈的市场竞争,准确的销售预测在汽车公司中扮演着越来越重要的角色。本文提出了一种计量模型,以分析中国汽车销售,典型的国产品牌汽车(奇瑞)销售和经济变量之间的动态联系。建模之前需要进行四个测试,包括单位根,弱外生性,协整和格兰杰因果关系测试。选择的经济变量包括消费者信心指数,钢铁产量,消费者价格指数和汽油价格。使用月度进行实证分析,结果表明中国汽车销量与内生变量之间存在长期协整关系。基于协整的计量经济学矢量误差校正模型用于量化内生变量对中国汽车销售的长期影响。与其他经典时间序列方法相比,均方根误差(0.1243)和平均绝对百分比错误...

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