城市化对区域生态安全的影响——基于VAR模型的实证分析

摘要

This article analyzes the data about the ecological security and the urbanization from 1990 to 2007, and gets the following conclusions between the cointegration test, granger causality test, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition through the VAR model. Firstly, the ecological security and urbanization have a long - term stability of equilibrium between relations; Secondly, the urbanization is granger reasons of promoting the ecological safety; Thirdly, the urbanization and the ecological security have a mutual influence between the process of urbanization, and the response of the urbanization to ecological security is less than the response of the ecological security to urbanization. As time passes by, the current value of the ecological security and urbanization can produce positive influence.%在搜集1990年到2007年新疆生态安全和城市化数据的基础上,通过建立VAR模型,对城镇化和生态安全之间的关系进行了协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应和方差分解分析,得到以下结论：生态安全和城镇化之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系;城镇化是促进生态安全的格兰杰原因;城镇化和生态安全之间存在一个相互影响的过程,但城镇化对生态安全扰动的响应小于生态安全对城镇化扰动的响应,且随着时间的推移,生态安全和城镇化的当期值均对对方的未来值产生正向扰动,即二者在一定程度上可以相互促进。