Is January 2004 a new direction or just a blip?

摘要

After decades of straight-line growth―and an assumption that the only foreseeable route for the indefinite future was further expansion―the January 2004 figures published by the China Leather Industry Association (CLIA) came as a rude shock. Figures 1 and 2 show the growth of leather exports and imports over the last four years. Normally a one-month decline would be put aside as a blip, a consequence of the Chinese New Year or a seasonal aberration. Certainly no statistician would accept drawing too many conclusions from one months figures. What is interesting here is that the CLIA does believe that the January 2004 figures signal an inflection point for the industry. Certainly it is interesting to study the figures (Tables 1-5) in the light of some newer thoughts.