A Gravity Model Forecast of the Potential Trade Effects of EU Enlargement: Lessons from 2004 and Path-dependency in Integration

摘要

The analysis applies a gravity model equation to bilateral trade flows among the EU member states as well as to the corresponding flows between them and their main trading partners. Then, the estimated coefficients, which describe the main determinants of the EU member states' trade patterns, are applied to ten transition, accession economies in order to predict the potential flows for these economies once they become as integrated with the EU member states as the latter are among themselves. The analysis relies on a panel of trade data for 1992-2003 and compares the predicted trade flows under two alternative scenarios with and without accession. The difference obtained corresponds to the impact of EU accession. There are perhaps four main conclusions for economic policy: All the transition accession economies see rises in levels of both exports and imports. Thus, as expected, these economies become more integrated with the world trading system.