An empirical analysis of the Renminbi: Exchange rates and cross-border trade settlement

摘要

We introduce a gravity model to the currency choice for cross-border trade settlement and the Heckman selection model to estimate the impact of the exchange rate on the cross-border trade settlement of the Renminbi (RMB). We analyse bilateral exchange rates using panel data of China and 182 RMB settlement countries, or areas, from 2009 to 2014. We find that, regardless the choice stage or scale stage of RMB cross-border trade settlement, the appreciation of the RMB does not necessarily promote RMB cross-border trade settlement. This result holds when we take geographic differences into account and split the settlement of cross-border trade into merchandise and service trade. We further investigate the channels through which exchange rate influences the cross-border trade settlement of RMB, and we find that the appreciation of RMB impedes enterprises from choosing RMB as their settlement currency by reducing the scale of export to RMB settlement areas, whereas it speeds up RMB cross-border trade settlement by increasing the scale of China's import from RMB settlement areas. We find that China's economic strength supports the development of RMB cross-border trade settlement. However, the geographical distance between China and the RMB settlement areas may inhibit cross-border trade settlement in RMB.